Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
