Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
